Can Voters Trust This Year's Election Polls? — The Answer Is Complicated

What's Happening

Politics

Can Voters Trust This Year's Election Polls? — The Answer Is Complicated

What's going on: With less than two weeks before Election Day, you’re likely coming across several polls showing a very close presidential race. But how accurate are they? National polls missed the mark badly during the 2016 and 2020 elections, underestimating support for Donald Trump both times. Some of the theories about what happened: Pollsters struggled to reach politically disengaged voters and failed to consider white and older voters (a group that favored Trump). Pollsters say they adjusted their methods for this year’s election, but they still face a new set of challenges. For instance, more Latino and Black voters are favoring Trump, though it’s difficult to predict how many will follow through at the ballot box. Similarly, gauging how many suburban women will back VP Kamala Harris over abortion rights remains tricky.

What it means: While many view polling data as a predictor of what’ll happen, we’ll just have to wait until Election Day, or the days that follow, to find out if the polls got it right. According to The Wall Street Journal, if polls miss the mark like in the last two presidential election cycles, then Harris’s narrow lead in some national polls would actually be Trump’s. As many wonder what’ll happen this year, some experts issued this reminder: voter sentiment can change up until the day of the election. Factors like voter turnout can also influence the results, and what happens could hinge on voters in key battleground states.

Related: Obama and Eminem on Stage? You Might Lose Yourself (Billboard)

US News

Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Charged in Sex-Trafficking Case

Disclaimer: The following story mentions sexual assault, which could be triggering to some readers.  

What’s going on: Michael Jeffries, the former head of Abercrombie & Fitch, is facing charges of sex trafficking and interstate prostitution, according to prosecutors. The indictment alleges that Jeffries, who was CEO from 1992 to 2014, ran an international prostitution and sex trafficking enterprise from 2008 to 2015, along with two other people. The allegations come from at least 15 possible accusers, some of whom say they were coerced into sex acts. The accusations build on a 2023 BBC investigation and a class action lawsuit, which claim that Jeffries used the promise of modeling jobs at Abercrombie to exploit victims.

What it means: Many millennials remember Abercrombie & Fitch as a mall staple (and, for that overpowering Fierce stench). But now, we’re getting a glimpse into what may have been hidden behind the scenes. Even before these allegations, there were concerns about the direction Jeffries was taking the company, which recently rebranded. An Abercrombie spokeswoman didn’t comment on the Jeffries arrest, but the brand told BBC last year it was “appalled and disgusted” by Jeffries’s alleged behavior.

Related: The Many Controversies That Brought Down Abercrombie: ‘Discrimination Was Their Brand’ (The Guardian)

Election 

The Dark Side of Those Aggressive Political Texts 

What's going on: Those annoying texts you get from political candidates asking for money? Some of them can be more insidious than you think. A new CNN investigation found that deceptive campaign fundraising targeted vulnerable, elderly folks — including some with dementia. CNN identified 52 often-unwitting seniors, many of whom were in their 80s and 90s, who gave a total of more than $6 million over five years. The group, which included veterans, widows living alone, and nursing home residents, gave money from pensions, retirement accounts, and Social Security. Others drained their savings or went into debt, with some handing over six-figure donations, largely to Republican candidates. One 81-year-old in Arizona believed he was in personal contact with former President Donald Trump and donated $80,000. His kids say the emails and texts preyed on their dad’s loneliness and state of mind.

What it means: The investigation found many payments started as small, single contributions that rapidly accumulated, thanks to persistent messages and recurring autopayments (many individuals didn’t know they had to opt out). Similar deceptive fundraising tactics emerged after the 2020 election. CNN notes that the Federal Trade Commission received over 800 complaints against Republican fundraisers in the last two years, almost seven times more than those against Democrats. Yet, the federal government has done little to curb the use of deceptive advertising by political organizations. Meanwhile, WinRed and ActBlue, the two digital fundraising platforms named in the CNN investigation, said they tell donors about recurring donations, and families can request refunds.

Related: How Well Can You Identify Misinformation Online? This Quiz Can Tell You (WaPo Gift Link)

Well Played

The week's sports news and culture stories, ranked.

Winning: Eighteen months ago, first-year kicker Jake Bates was a brick salesman in Houston. This past weekend, he secured the W for the Lions and received the game ball. He built this dream brick by brick.

There’s no “I” in team: “I'd rather see the young boys eat” — Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley opted to forgo breaking his own personal rushing yards record so his teammates could have their moment.

Pour one out: Patti McGee, the first women’s pro skateboarder, has died at 79. As Tony Hawk put it, “she ripped, and we were lucky to have her.”

Hang it in the Louvre: The New York Liberty celebrated their first franchise championship with their mini me’s.

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Watch

You're probably familiar with Elizabeth Holmes. But what about "the Elizabeth Holmes of Yoga"? That's who is at the center of HBO's new docuseries, Breath of Fire (mark your calendar for 9 pm ET). Based on a 2021 Vanity Fair article, the four-part exposé chronicles the rise and fall of Katie Griggs, a millennial YouTube astrologer who reinvented herself as Guru Jagat — and quickly rose to fame as the face of Kundalini yoga, promising her followers, which included Hollywood celebs, a lifetime of financial, wellness, and spiritual fulfillment. But beneath Griggs’s charisma and "girlboss-adjacent words of affirmation" were decades of corruption and manipulation.

Game Time

Looking for a crossword that’s not impossible to solve? You’re in luck. This one even offers hints when you get stuck. The faster you finish, the better your score — and the more impressed the group chat will be. Go on.