Biden’s Popularity With Women Is Waning and It Could Cost Him

What's Happening

Politics

Biden’s Popularity With Women Is Waning and It Could Cost Him

What's going on: President Biden’s lead among women has dropped from 13% to roughly 8% since the 2020 election, according to the New York Times’ analysis of more than 30 polls conducted over the last six months. The findings could be a wake-up call for Democrats, who reportedly haven’t seen their lead among women drop to single digits in 20 years. Biden has especially fallen off with Black and Hispanic women, according to new polls from KFF, a healthcare research nonprofit. Meanwhile, former President Trump’s support from men has bounced back to 2016 levels, when he had a double-digit lead.

What it means: Women aren’t single-issue voters. Still, Democrats made abortion rights a centerpiece of Biden’s campaign and are counting on the issue to bring women out to the polls this fall. But concerns about inflation have kept many women from supporting the president. Pollsters say the election could come down to Black and Hispanic women, many of whom are making inflation their No. 1 issue. Democratic strategists still insist that women and Black voters, who have consistently voted blue, will turn out for Biden. That appears to be true in swing states like Arizona, where abortion could be on the ballot in November. KFF found that Democratic women are more motivated to vote in states where access to the procedure is threatened.

Related: From Sexxy Red to Lil Wayne, Trump Turns to Rappers To Make Gains With Black Voters (NBC)

Education

More Kids Need Special Education As Schools Struggle To Provide It

What's going on: More American children qualify for special education than ever before, according to new federal data, but support for them is falling short. A record 7.5 million students used special-education services in the US last year, an increase of about 2% from a decade ago. Yet, one in five public schools reported last fall that they weren’t fully staffed in special education, according to a federal survey. Now, many schools worry that the staffing shortage for special education, attributed in part to low wages and burnout, could get worse. That's because pandemic-era funding is set to expire this fall, making budgets even tighter.

What it means: There are several reasons for the rise in students requiring special education services. The pandemic left many kids with learning and behavioral challenges, and for the students already receiving these services, remote learning during COVID disrupted access to in-person help. There has also been a shift from parents who may have previously shied away from requesting this kind of assistance, as there is now less of a stigma around it. Autism diagnoses have also been on the rise in recent decades. Meanwhile, as temporary COVID aid comes to an end, schools are grappling with how to stretch their budgets even further to provide students with the support they need.

Related: What Do Students Lose When There Are No Aides? (NPR)

Health

A New Parkinson’s Trial Is Offering Some Hope

What's going on: Yesterday, researchers published the details of a small trial that could provide the building blocks to diagnose and treat Parkinson’s disease. Vaxxinity, a US-based biotech company, created a vaccine that teaches a person’s immune system to attack an abnormal protein found in Parkinson’s patients. The company also worked with researchers at the University of Texas to develop a diagnostic test that measures levels of the abnormal protein in a patient's cerebrospinal fluid. The test could be a crucial step for helping diagnose Parkinson's, which often gets misdiagnosed. It's important to note that only 20 patients were part of this initial trial, but researchers are optimistic about the results.

What it means: This potential treatment could provide hope to the approximately 500,000 people in the US who are diagnosed with Parkinson's. There is no cure for the disease and current treatments offer limited relief. The researchers’ diagnostic method could become the first of its kind on the market if the FDA grants full approval. That could help detect the disease at an earlier stage when treatment is more effective.

Related: This Woman’s Nose Could Help Sniff Out Parkinson’s (NYT Gift Link)

Quick Hits

😢 “A life well lived,” Kiefer Sutherland pays tribute to his dad.

🛒 Next time you’re at Target, artificial intelligence could help you add to your cart.

🎧 Tired of your friends giving you relationship advice? Try listening to podcast hosts instead.

🧳 Raise your hand if you’d move to this state (because everyone else apparently is).

🥪 Would you let your husband pack you a “chaos lunch”?

😶 Of course, when Ben Affleck has RBF, he decides to use a nicer word. 

Let's Unpack This

On June 27, former President Trump and President Biden will go head-to-head in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. theSkimm reached out to Emily Van Duyn, associate professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, to chat about the upcoming showdown.

What role do presidential debates play in this year’s election?

“There are two things that make this debate special. One, these are two presidential candidates we’ve seen before. Voters already know a lot more about them — their policy priorities and their demeanor — than they would about candidates that have not previously served as president, so it’s likely a lot of the debate will focus on issues newer to the scene (think: the Israel-Hamas war and Trump’s recent conviction),” Van Duyn said. “And two, this debate is very early. Presidential debates normally don’t happen until a couple of months before the election, and we still have almost five months until Election Day. A lot can change between now and then and it likely will.”

It seems like so much of the country already knows how they’re going to vote, which begs the question: Do presidential debates actually sway voters? 

“Debates can be important moments for political learning. Research finds that they can help voters learn about candidates’ positions and that they can influence people’s perceptions of candidates’ overall character. And there’s some evidence that these changes can have a small effect on undecided voters’ attitudes and who they ultimately vote for,” Van Duyn told theSkimm. “But, for the most part, the people who tune into debates often have their minds made up … it’s hard to say that this will be a decisive moment in how the rest of the campaign will play out.”

What else should people keep in mind if they’re watching the debate?

“There’s always a lot of polling around presidential debates because they offer a decisive moment where public opinion might change and campaigns use them as leverage for donations,” Van Duyn said. “These polls are only a slice in time — they’re a good snapshot of where public opinion stands, but they’re not necessarily reflective of the outcome of the election … I’d encourage people to view any polling they see in response to the debate with a grain of salt.”

PS: This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Featured Expert

Emily Van Duyn

Associate Professor, Department of Communication at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

Read more:

• Why RFK Jr Couldn’t Make the Debate a Party of Three (Politico)

• Biden and Trump Are Wary of Becoming a Debate Meme (Axios)

Extra Credit

Listen

The latest artist to join the “Pop Girl Summer” Tour? Gracie Abrams — Grammy Award nominee, certified Swiftie (she opened for her hero at the Eras Tour), and talented nepo baby (her dad is J.J. Abrams, “Star Wars” director and co-creator of “Lost”) — whose sophomore album, “The Secret of Us,” drops today. In her “most mainstream-friendly project to date,” the 24-year-old teamed up with producer (and frequent Taylor Swift collaborator) Aaron Dessner of The National as well as Swift herself, who co-wrote the track “Us.” Hailed as “sharper, hookier and more extroverted than ever” (just listen to “Risk”), Abrams proves she can hold her own among 2024’s pop princesses.

Settle This

Do you have a question you want Skimm readers to weigh in on? Submit it here.

We all know what “quiet quitting” means when it comes to the workplace. But what about friendships? Apparently, millennials and Gen Zers are slowly phasing out some of their friends. Would you do this in your friendship circle?

Game Time

Kick your weekend off with Pile-Up Poker, a brand-new game where poker meets solitaire. Create as many poker hands as possible to earn cash and climb the leaderboard. We’re all in.

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