The fog of war is complicating an already complex situation.

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The fog of war is complicating an already complex situation.

What’s fog of war?

The term refers to uncertainty during wartime. In the context of the latest Israel-Hamas war, it’s playing out through misinformation, disinformation, and conflicting narratives. This week, Palestinian health officials said hundreds are believed to be killed after an explosion at a hospital in northern Gaza. Hamas blamed an Israeli airstrike, calling it “a horrific massacre.” Israel blamed Palestinian Islamic Jihad — another militant group in the region — calling it a failed rocket launch. The news enraged the region with protests spreading across the Middle East and Jordan canceling a planned meeting with President Biden. Now, the White House says it’s continuing to collect information, but that its current assessment is that Israel was “not responsible.”

What’s the assessment based on?

Infrared satellite data, intercepted communications provided by Israel, and open source information showing a launch that didn’t come from Israel. That includes assessments that the alleged crater in the parking lot of the hospital was inconsistent with impacts from Israeli airstrikes. Still, Biden noted that “there's a lot of people out there” who are “not sure” about who’s responsible. Media outlets have not been able to independently verify material — like video and audio — indicating who’s behind the hospital explosion.

Why is it hard to verify?

Multiple reasons. Misinformation and disinformation is running rampant on social media platforms, as tech layoffs cut back on the number of fact checkers. Plus, even without that complication, the process can take time. But it's important to get it right, especially given the stakes and how things have played out in the past.

Meaning what?

In 2022, Israel claimed that militants were to blame for the death of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh but eventually took responsibility about a year later. Meanwhile, the Associated Press last year said it verified an Israeli assessment that Islamic Jihad rockets fell within Gaza, killing at least a dozen Palestinians. AP verified the assessment through TV footage and onsite visits. Then, there's the US government — which has its own history of flawed assessments that have led to war.

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Anger is mounting over a war with a death toll now in the thousands, and competing allegations can inflame an already fraught situation. Verifying responsibility is critically important when a larger Middle Eastern war might be at stake.

How Does US Aid Play a Role in the Region?

In light of the latest Israel-Hamas war, the US is sending $10 billion in military aid to Israel (part of a larger emergency aid package) and $100 million in aid to Palestinians. It comes as Israel agreed to allow Egypt to deliver humanitarian aid into Gaza — which could happen starting tomorrow. The US has a history of providing aid to the region. Here's theSkimm:

Israel: The US-Israel relationship dates back to 1948, when the US became the first country to recognize Israeli statehood. In the decades since, the relationship has grown thanks to the US’s strategic interests in the region — including access to oil, eradicating terrorism, and countering the influence of Russia and Iran. The US provides $3.8 billion dollars each year to support Israel’s military and missile defense system — the largest amount of foreign aid the US consistently gives. To date, the US has given Israel over $158 billion dollars. The two countries also rely on each other for intelligence sharing, collaborate on weapons research and design, and trade about $50 billion in goods and services each year. 

Palestinians: The US has historically been the largest single donor to UNRWA, the UN agency that supports Palestinian refugees, donating hundreds of millions of dollars per year. In 2018, the Trump admin ended that aid. But over the past two years, the US recommitted to sending aid. Now, President Biden says a $100 million package will be directed to the “more than 1 million displaced” Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Still, Biden warned Hamas not to take the aid. As he put it, if they do, “they will have demonstrated once again that they have no concern for the welfare of the Palestinian people, and it will end as a practical matter.”

What's still looking for the one...

The House. Yesterday, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) failed to secure the House speaker role for the second time. The House hasn’t had a speaker for over two weeks, since former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was removed from his post. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) bowed out of the speaker race after just one go at it. Jordan is still manifesting holding that gavel in his hand — despite losing more votes in the second round. Another vote is expected today. Meanwhile, some representatives on both sides of the aisle said they would be open to expanding Rep. Patrick McHenry's (R-NC) limited powers as temporary speaker, potentially in 15-day increments at a time.

Whose family is getting closure...

Natalee Holloway's. Yesterday, a US judge said Joran van der Sloot confessed to killing Holloway. In 2005, Holloway went missing during a high school graduation trip to Aruba. Her disappearance captured international attention. Van der Sloot, a Dutch national, had long been a prime suspect. In June, he was extradited to the US to face wire fraud and extortion charges, accused of attempting to get $250,000 from Holloway’s family in exchange for info about her disappearance. As part of a plea deal, van der Sloot had to explain to the Holloway family what happened to Natalee and her body. He’s been sentenced to 20 years in prison — which he will serve concurrently with his 28-year sentence in Peru for the death of Stephany Flores. Holloway’s mother said that her daughter’s case is “solved.”

What wants to fill up its piggy bank…

X. Earlier this week, the company, formerly known as Twitter, said it'll start testing a $1 annual fee with new users in New Zealand and the Philippines. The “Not A Bot” test will require payment in order for new users to “post and interact with other posts.” X owner Elon Musk has previously said the company planned to use a subscription model to combat “vast armies of bots.”

Who shoots and scores...

The Las Vegas Aces. Yesterday, they beat the New York Liberty 70-69 to become back-to-back WNBA champions. The Aces are the first team to win the title consecutively since 2002. 

Who’s going to be on the sidelines for a while…

Neymar.

While the House can’t get it together…

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is playing cupid.